XRP To $0.70 Next? The Case For Another 40% Crash

Market expert Sam Daodu highlights a predominantly bearish technical picture across various timeframes for XRP. The cryptocurrency is currently trading below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, a pattern typically indicative of strong selling pressure. While some minor support has historically appeared around $1.09 and $1.05, the $1 psychological floor remains a key level where demand often emerges. However, some chart analysts suggest a potential further drop of up to 40% from current levels could occur if the broader risk-off sentiment in the market persists, potentially pushing XRP towards $0.70.

Why it matters for Australian investors

For Australian investors holding XRP or considering an entry point, these developments are crucial. A significant price reduction in XRP could represent a buying opportunity for those with a long-term outlook, particularly if market sentiment shifts. Conversely, those invested in XRP on Australian exchanges like CoinSpot, Independent Reserve, Swyftx, or BTC Markets might be experiencing portfolio drawdowns, necessitating a re-evaluation of their investment strategy. The price fluctuations directly impact the AUD value of their holdings, influencing capital gains or losses for tax purposes as assessed by the ATO.

Fluctuations in XRP's price also highlight the inherent volatility of the crypto market, a factor Australian investors must always consider. While there's no direct influence from AUSTRAC or ASIC on XRP's price action unless there are regulatory changes impacting its status locally, their oversight on exchanges ensures a regulated environment for trading. The ongoing global regulatory debate surrounding XRP, exemplified by the CLARITY Act, can have cascading effects on investor confidence worldwide, including in Australia.

Impact on the AUD market

While XRP's price is denominated in US dollars in global markets, its movements directly impact its AUD equivalent on Australian crypto exchanges. A 40% depreciation in XRP's USD value, as some analysts suggest could happen, would translate to a similar percentage drop for Australian investors, assuming a stable AUD/USD exchange rate. This could lead to a decrease in the overall AUD value of crypto portfolios and potentially influence trading volumes on local platforms as investors react to market conditions.

Conversely, a strong rebound, particularly one propelled by a positive regulatory outcome, could see a significant uplift in the AUD value of XRP holdings. Australian investors often closely monitor key support and resistance levels, and the $1 USD mark translates to a specific AUD value that can trigger buy or sell orders. The interplay between XRP's fundamental drivers and the AUD/USD exchange rate is a constant consideration for local traders.

What to watch next

Several key factors will influence XRP's trajectory. Firstly, the performance of Bitcoin (BTC) is paramount. If BTC slides into the $55,000 range, XRP is likely to follow, irrespective of its own fundamentals. Australian investors should monitor BTC's price movements closely, as it often dictates the broader altcoin market trend. The second major factor is the progression of the CLARITY Act in the US, specifically whether it receives a Senate floor vote. A favourable outcome could act as a catalyst for a rebound, with some forecasts suggesting XRP could reach $2.80 or even as high as $8 if the macroeconomic environment stabilises. Conversely, a delay or stall in the bill's legislative journey could see prices retreat towards $0.53.

On-chain data presents a conflicting but potentially bullish long-term narrative. The number of XRP wallets holding at least 10,000 tokens has hit record highs, indicating accumulation by smaller holders. Furthermore, millionaire wallets (holding 1 million or more XRP) have seen their first net increase since September 2025. Whale behaviour also shows significant concentration, with those holding 10 million or more XRP controlling 68.5% of the circulating supply. Historically, high whale outflow dominance on exchanges like Binance, such as the 91.4% recently observed, has often preceded significant rallies. Adding to this, XRP’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered an oversold reset zone, an occurrence that has previously foreshadowed major reversals only three other times in 13 years. These on-chain and long-cycle technical signals suggest potential for a future rebound, despite current short-term bearish indications. Australian investors should consider these on-chain metrics when evaluating their long-term position, acknowledging that they often provide a different perspective than immediate price action.