Ripple Price Analysis: Is XRP Ready for a Comeback After Reclaiming Major Support?

On the daily chart against USDT, XRP recently dipped below a local support at approximately $1.30, quickly entering a significant demand zone between $1.10 and $1.20. This particular range has historically acted as a strong buying area, and again, it prompted a rebound after a brief dip below its lower boundary. While a bounce occurred, the overarching market structure for XRP remains bearish, with its price confined within a long-term descending channel.

The asset continues to trade below key moving averages: the 100-day moving average sits around $1.35, and the 200-day moving average is near $1.60. This bearish alignment of moving averages indicates that sellers currently maintain control over the higher-timeframe trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown some recovery from near-oversold conditions, currently around 33, implying a slight easing of bearish momentum, though a strong bullish reversal signal has not yet emerged.

More interestingly, XRP's performance against Bitcoin (BTC) is showing more constructive signs after several months of underperformance. The XRP/BTC pair found strong support near 1,700 sats and has since established a series of higher lows. This pattern suggests that the selling pressure against Bitcoin may be diminishing.

The pair is now trading around 1,820 sats, which coincides with an important resistance area just below the declining 100-day moving average. A decisive breakout above this zone could bolster the recovery narrative, potentially allowing XRP to target the next resistance around 2,000 sats, where the 200-day moving average is also located. The RSI for the BTC pair has improved markedly, hovering near the neutral 55 level, reflecting strengthening momentum compared to its USDT counterpart. As long as XRP holds above the 1,700 sat support against BTC, the probability of an extension towards higher resistance levels remains elevated.

Why it matters for Australian investors

For Australian investors, the performance of XRP holds particular significance given its historical popularity in Australia and its active trading on local exchanges such as CoinSpot, Independent Reserve, Swyftx, and BTC Markets. Volatility in XRP's price, as outlined in this analysis, directly impacts portfolio valuations for those holding the asset.

Australian investors often consider the AUD exchange rate when evaluating cryptocurrency performance. A potential recovery in XRP, especially against Bitcoin, could lead to more favourable AUD price movements, attracting renewed interest. However, the prevailing bearish market structure means that caution remains prudent.

Moreover, the regulatory environment in Australia, governed by bodies like AUSTRAC and ASIC, means that any significant price movements or shifts in market sentiment around XRP are closely watched. While the regulatory landscape doesn't directly dictate price action, a clearer path for XRP globally could positively influence its standing among Australian institutional investors, who are increasingly considering the asset class.

From a tax perspective, the Australian Taxation Office (ATO) treats cryptocurrencies as property. Any profits realised from selling XRP are subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT). Therefore, understanding the market's support and resistance levels, and potential reversal points, is crucial for Australian investors to make informed decisions regarding their taxable events.

Impact on the AUD market

The Australian dollar (AUD) price of XRP is directly influenced by its USDT and BTC pairs, along with the broader AUD/USD exchange rate. A sustained recovery in XRP's USDT valuation, particularly if it breaches significant resistance levels, would likely translate into upward pressure on its AUD price. Conversely, further declines would see its AUD value diminish.

Local exchanges in Australia provide direct AUD trading pairs for XRP, making these price movements immediately visible and impactful for Australian users. A strengthening XRP/BTC pair, as suggested by recent price action, could signal a change in market sentiment that might eventually flow through to the AUD market, potentially strengthening XRP's value relative to other digital assets.

However, it's important to remember that the Australian crypto market, while interconnected with global trends, can also exhibit its own unique characteristics. Local demand, regulatory updates, and even general economic conditions in Australia can play a role in how XRP's global price action is reflected in AUD terms. For example, increased market confidence or clarification around Ripple's legal standing could spur Australian investor interest.

Should XRP break out of its current descending channel and successfully reclaim key moving averages, it could trigger a more widespread buying spree globally, which would undoubtedly be mirrored in the Australian market. Conversely, failure to hold crucial support zones could lead to further downward price discovery, impacting the sentiment and portfolios of Australian XRP holders.

What to watch next

The immediate focus for XRP in the USDT pair will be its ability to reclaim and sustain a position above the 100-day moving average, currently around $1.35. A successful breach and consolidation above this level, potentially turning the $1.35-$1.40 region into support, would be a strong bullish signal. This could then open the path towards the next major resistance zone closer to $1.80.

On the downside, investors should closely monitor the demand zone between $1.10 and $1.20. A failure to hold this crucial support could see XRP test the lower boundary of its long-term descending channel, potentially leading to further capitulation. The RSI's movement will also be critical; an increase towards the neutral 50-70 range would suggest strengthening bullish momentum.

Regarding the XRP/BTC pair, the critical point to watch is a decisive breakout above the 1,820 sats resistance area, particularly if it also breaches the declining 100-day moving average. A sustained move above this cluster would strengthen the recovery narrative and potentially target 2,000 sats. Conversely, a breakdown below the 1,700 sat support would invalidate the recent recovery structure, shifting focus to lower channel support around 1,500 sats.

Australian investors should monitor global market sentiment, ongoing developments in Ripple's legal cases, and any local regulatory updates from bodies like ASIC or AUSTRAC, which could indirectly influence market perception and liquidity. Keeping an eye on the AUD-USD exchange rate will also be important for understanding the true value of their XRP holdings in local currency.