Bitcoin Price: Donald Trump’s ‘Great Deal’ Could Reopen Hormuz in 30 Days

The Polymarket platform, for instance, indicated a jump in odds for a permanent U.S.-Iran deal reaching 37%, a considerable rise from approximately 14% just days prior. These markets are also pricing in higher probabilities for a deal by early June (46%) and late July (72%), reflecting growing investor sentiment. The substantial trading volume — around $178 million — on these platforms underscores the intense interest in the geopolitical developments.

Negotiators from Iran have reportedly arrived in Doha for discussions mediated by Pakistan and Qatar. The talks are said to encompass critical issues including the Strait of Hormuz, highly enriched uranium protocols, and a potential extension of the existing ceasefire. While former President Donald Trump described the talks as progressing positively, he maintained that the outcome would either be a "Great Deal for all" or "no Deal at all," indicating the delicate nature of the negotiations.

Adding to the optimism, a Nikkei report suggested discussions include a plan to reopen the strategically important Strait of Hormuz within 30 days of a peace agreement. This would involve Iran clearing mines from the waterway, ensuring safe passage for international shipping, and ceasing the collection of transit fees. The proposed framework also reportedly includes a 60-day ceasefire extension to allow for further talks on Iran's nuclear program. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial global oil shipping lane, and its reopening could significantly impact crude markets.

Why it matters for Australian investors

Australian investors in the crypto space should pay close attention to these geopolitical developments. A significant reduction in tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, could lead to a decrease in global oil prices. For the Australian economy, which is sensitive to energy costs, lower oil prices could alleviate inflationary pressures.

When global inflation concerns ease, central banks, including the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), might feel less pressure to maintain hawkish monetary policies. This environment could be generally supportive of risk assets, such as Bitcoin, as investors seek higher returns in a more stable economic climate. A stronger Bitcoin performance, traded on Australian exchanges like CoinSpot, Independent Reserve, Swyftx, and BTC Markets, would naturally benefit local portfolios.

Furthermore, the Australian dollar (AUD) often reacts to shifts in global commodity prices and geopolitical stability. A positive resolution in the Middle East could contribute to a more stable global economic outlook, potentially impacting AUD strength against major currencies like the USD, which in turn affects the AUD-denominated price of Bitcoin. Australian investors calculating their crypto gains for ATO tax purposes need to consider these price movements carefully, as capital gains tax applies to cryptocurrency.

Impact on the AUD market

The Australian market, while geographically distant from the Middle East, is intrinsically linked to global economic stability. A more secure and predictable energy market, stemming from the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, could lead to a measurable easing of global supply chain disruptions and input costs. This could translate into lower domestic inflation, benefiting Australian consumers and businesses.

For Australian Bitcoin holders, the potential for reduced inflation and a generally more risk-on investment environment could provide tailwinds. When traditional financial markets perceive less risk, capital often flows into assets like Bitcoin, driving up demand and potentially prices. The current Bitcoin recovery, trading around $77,400 (USD), if sustained by positive geopolitical news, could see its AUD equivalent rise, enhancing portfolio values for Australian investors.

Local regulatory bodies like ASIC and AUSTRAC monitor the crypto market closely for stability and compliance. While the direct influence of a peace deal on their regulatory frameworks is minimal, a healthier global crypto market generally reduces systemic risks that these organisations are keen to mitigate. Positive market sentiment can also encourage more mainstream adoption of crypto in Australia, increasing trading volumes on local exchanges.

What to watch next

Investors should closely track the progress of the U.S.-Iran negotiations. Any official announcements regarding a definitive agreement or its breakdown will likely prompt significant market reactions. Particular attention should be paid to reports concerning the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and its actual impact on crude oil prices, as this could be a key driver for broader market sentiment.

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin's ability to sustain its position within the $76,600 to $78,500 range, and ultimately break above the $79,188 to $80,000 resistance zone, will be critical. A clear daily close above this level would signal stronger bullish momentum. Conversely, failure to hold the current recovery zone could see BTC retest support levels around $73,400, $71,400, and potentially lower.

On-chain metrics, such as those from Glassnode, also warrant continued observation. While selling pressure appears to be easing, and US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows showed improvement, a sustained increase in network activity and spot trading volume would indicate stronger, more organic demand. Changes in options data or futures open interest could provide further insights into market sentiment and leveraged positions, offering Australian investors a more comprehensive view of Bitcoin's potential trajectory.