Do You Feel What’s Coming for XRP? Analyst Sets Next Rally Target

The chart, utilising a monthly timeframe, tracks XRP’s trajectory, noting its position near the lower half of the channel after having cooled off from a 2025 rally that briefly pushed it above AUD 4.50 (approximately $3 USD at the time). A key aspect of Amonyx’s analysis is the identification of a recurring pattern: each past major XRP rally was preceded by an extended period of consolidation near support, followed by a sharp vertical breakout. The current market environment appears to mirror this pattern, with XRP undergoing a similar pullback phase close to its long-term ascending trendline.

Critically, the chart places XRP near the lower boundary of this rising channel, approximately around AUD 2.10 (considering a $1.40 USD equivalent). This area proved to be a significant launchpad in previous market cycles, according to the analysis. Despite a deep retracement from its all-time high of approximately AUD 5.50 (around $3.65 USD) in July 2025, this support line has reportedly prevented further downside. The upper boundary of the channel extends far beyond current price levels, with the mid-channel resistance zone potentially appearing around AUD 52 (approximately $35 USD).

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator included in the chart, recently retreated towards the 40 mark after entering overbought territory during XRP's last rally. Similar RSI resets have historically preceded upward expansions for XRP. This indicates that momentum is cooling without breaking the overarching long-term trend, a behaviour observed in prior cycles where the RSI consolidated near support before price acceleration.

Why it matters for Australian investors

For Australian investors, understanding these long-term technical analyses of assets like XRP can be a key component in formulating a strategic approach to digital asset portfolios. While past performance is no guarantee of future results, identifying structural patterns and key support/resistance levels can inform decision-making, particularly concerning potential entry or exit points. Australian investors often access XRP through local exchanges such as CoinSpot, Independent Reserve, Swyftx, and BTC Markets, where AUD denominated prices are directly available.

Given the Australian Tax Office (ATO) guidance on cryptocurrency, any realised gains from XRP trading or investment are subject to Capital Gains Tax (CGT). Therefore, a potential significant price movement, as hinted by Amonyx’s analysis, would have direct implications for an investor’s tax obligations. Understanding market cycles and major trends can help investors plan for these eventualities, though it’s crucial to remember that market predictions are speculative.

The underlying technology of XRP, often associated with cross-border payments, also holds broader relevance. While the analysis focuses on price, the asset's utility in the financial sector continues to evolve. Australian financial institutions are increasingly exploring blockchain technologies, and long-term asset performance can indirectly reflect shifts in underlying adoption and utility. However, individual investors should always conduct their own thorough due diligence, considering both technical indicators and fundamental developments.

Impact on the AUD market

Should XRP experience a significant rally as projected by Amonyx’s long-term chart, it would undoubtedly generate considerable trading volume and interest within the Australian crypto market. Australian investors, a significant demographic in the global crypto landscape, represent a substantial portion of XRP holders. An upward price trajectory for XRP could see increased liquidity across AUD-denominated trading pairs on local exchanges.

Increased trading activity often leads to enhanced market depth and potentially tighter spreads on platforms like CoinSpot and Swyftx, benefiting Australian traders. Furthermore, a substantial rally could prompt a new wave of interest from retail investors who might be drawn to the potential for significant returns, mirroring past bull cycle behaviours. This influx of capital could further bolster the overall sentiment within the Australian digital asset space.

Conversely, any major market movements, whether up or down, also draw the attention of regulatory bodies like ASIC and AUSTRAC. While they primarily focus on consumer protection and anti-money laundering, significant market volatility can prompt increased scrutiny. For individual Australian investors, managing risk exposure and understanding the speculative nature of such assets remains paramount, irrespective of bullish predictions.

What to watch next

For Australian investors closely following XRP, the immediate focus will be on whether the asset successfully reclaims crucial resistance zones. The analysis points to the range of approximately AUD 4.50 to AUD 5.25 (equivalent to $3 to $3.5 USD) as the next major hurdle. A decisive breakout above this descending resistance level would significantly strengthen the case for a continuation towards the higher channel targets outlined in Amonyx’s projection.

Beyond technical indicators, broader market sentiment and general macroeconomic conditions will also play a role. Global liquidity, interest rate environments, and regulatory developments could all influence the crypto market's overall direction, impacting XRP. Australian investors should monitor not only XRP-specific news but also general crypto market trends accessible via local news outlets and exchange platforms.

Additionally, the behaviour of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) should be closely observed. A sustained consolidation near support, followed by an upward turn, would align with the cyclical patterns identified in Amonyx’s analysis. This technical alignment, combined with a breach of overhead resistance, would provide stronger confirmation for the potential rally. As always, investors should exercise caution and consider a diversified approach rather than solely relying on single asset predictions.