XRP Price Prediction: Is a Moment of Truth Approaching after Four Months of Repeated Rejection at The $1.65 Resistance?

XRP has been trading within a tight range, consistently failing to break above the US$1.65 resistance level over approximately the last four months. Each attempt to push higher has been met with selling pressure, reinforcing this price point as a significant ceiling. According to CasiTrades, this extended period beneath a major resistance level is a critical observation, as it can indicate fading bullish momentum.

Historically, prolonged consolidation below resistance can precede a downside movement rather than a sustainable breakout. The analyst suggests that XRP might be heading towards a 'liquidity sweep' lower. This is a common market manoeuvre where prices dip to clear out leveraged positions before a potential trend reversal can occur. On the downside, two significant macro support levels have been identified: US$1.10 and US$0.87. These areas are believed to contain substantial buy orders from previous demand, potentially acting as strong support zones.

Current data indicates XRP is trading around US$1.33, showing a slight dip over the past week. This reflects its range-bound nature, fluctuating between the US$1.65 resistance and established support levels. The inability to definitively break either way underscores a lack of decisive momentum. A clean breakthrough of US$1.65, followed by a retest where it holds as support, would be a strong indicator of a shift in trend. Without such confirmation, XRP remains susceptible to further rejections or a move towards lower support zones.

Adding to this cautious sentiment, on-chain data reveals a significant reduction in whale activity, with large transactions decreasing by over 50%. This suggests that major holders are currently on the sidelines, awaiting clearer market signals. Similarly, retail investor sentiment has softened, with some viewing the current weakness as an opportunity for long-term accumulation should prices drop further. The market is currently bracing for an expansion in volatility, which is typical after extended periods of tight consolidation.

Why it matters for Australian investors

For Australian investors, XRP's price action has direct implications, particularly given its historical prominence in the local market. Movements in the US-denominated price — such as the US$1.65 resistance or the US$1.10 and US$0.87 support levels — directly translate to the Australian dollar equivalent on platforms like CoinSpot, Independent Reserve, Swyftx, and BTC Markets. A significant price movement in either direction would impact portfolio valuations and potential trading strategies.

The 'liquidity sweep' scenario, if it eventuates, could present both risks and opportunities. A sharp drop would test the conviction of holders but might also appeal to those looking to accumulate XRP at lower price points. It's crucial for Aussie investors to consider their risk tolerance and investment horizons when navigating such volatile periods. While the ATO provides clear guidance on crypto tax treatment, any significant gains or losses from trading or holding XRP would need to be accounted for, reinforcing the need for diligent record-keeping during periods of high price flux.

Furthermore, the reduced whale activity and softened retail sentiment suggest that institutional and larger individual investors are adopting a 'wait and see' approach. Australian investors often follow these trends, seeking clarity before making substantial commitments. Transparency and regulatory compliance, particularly oversight from AUSTRAC for exchanges and ASIC's broader regulatory watch, continue to underpin confidence in the Australian crypto market, even during periods of market uncertainty for specific assets like XRP.

Impact on the AUD market

The Australian dollar (AUD) market for XRP is directly correlated with its USD counterpart. Should XRP experience a decisive move, whether a breakout or a sweep to lower support, Australian exchanges would reflect these changes almost instantly. For instance, a drop to the US$1.10 support level would see the AUD price of XRP adjust accordingly, based on the prevailing AUD/USD exchange rate. This could trigger heightened trading activity on Australian platforms.

If the 'liquidity sweep' scenario plays out, it could lead to increased AUD-denominated buying pressure from Australian investors looking to 'buy the dip', potentially creating higher order book depth at lower price points on local exchanges. Conversely, a prolonged period of downward pressure could see some Australian holders de-risk, converting XRP back into AUD stablecoins or fiat, impacting overall liquidity for the asset within the Australian market.

Local exchanges like CoinSpot, Independent Reserve, Swyftx, and BTC Markets would be the primary venues for Australian investors to react to these price shifts. Their order books and trading volumes for XRP/AUD pairs would provide real-time indicators of Australian investor sentiment. While the price targets are set in USD, the practical impact on an Australian investor's bottom line is always measured in AUD, making the conversion rate a secondary but important factor.

What to watch next

The immediate focus remains on the US$1.65 resistance level. A clear breach, followed by a successful retest where this level transforms into support, would be the most compelling short-term bullish signal. Such a move could signify the end of the extended corrective phase and an opportunity for upward momentum. For Australian investors, monitoring XRP's price against the AUD throughout this period will be key to understanding real-time valuation.

Should the resistance hold, attention will shift to the downside support levels of US$1.10 and US$0.87. A move towards these areas might be interpreted by some as a strategic market reset rather than a full breakdown, offering potential entry points for long-term accumulation. Observing how these levels hold, particularly if volume increases, will be crucial. The outcome of this period of high compression — be it a breakout or a deeper liquidity sweep — will likely define XRP's medium-term trajectory and influence trading strategies for Australian investors.

Finally, keeping an eye on broader market sentiment and on-chain metrics, such as whale movements and large transaction volumes, will offer additional insights. A resurgence in whale activity, especially at key support levels, could signal renewed institutional interest. Australian investors should continue to exercise caution, conduct their own due diligence, and stay informed on regulatory developments related to digital assets, even as they track XRP's technical battleground.