Japanese Bitcoin Fan Shows Why XRP Will Hit $35

Amidst the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape, a compelling analysis from a well-known crypto commentator, dubbed "Bitcoin Boy" (@btcbox123), has captured significant attention, particularly among those tracking Ripple's native token, XRP. Despite his moniker suggesting a focus on Bitcoin, his recent chart illustrating XRP's long-term price potential has sparked considerable discussion. This analysis, originally shared on social media, delves into XRP's historical price action and technical indicators, suggesting a remarkable trajectory that could see the asset reach as high as US$35.

For Australian investors navigating the often-volatile crypto market, understanding such long-term technical perspectives is crucial. While the target of US$35 might seem audacious, the methodology behind it offers a structured look at XRP's market behaviour over an extended period. This piece will break down Bitcoin Boy's analysis, explore its implications for Australian investors, consider its potential influence on the Australian dollar (AUD) crypto market, and highlight key factors to monitor going forward.

What happened

Bitcoin Boy, a crypto commentator typically associated with Bitcoin, recently shared a detailed chart focusing on XRP's monthly price action against the US dollar on Bitstamp. The core of his analysis revolves around a large ascending channel that XRP has reportedly traded within for over a decade. Currently, XRP is positioned near the lower half of this structure, having consolidated above crucial support levels in recent months.

The chart highlights XRP's consistent ability to establish higher lows since its significant rally in 2017. It points to a pattern of consolidation near the bottom of this channel before breaking out to new peaks, as observed in both early 2018 and a substantial 500% surge in late 2024, which briefly propelled XRP above US$3 for the second time. Following an extended period of consolidation at the end of 2025 and into early 2026, XRP is once more near the lower trendline of this enduring channel.

Furthermore, Bitcoin Boy's analysis incorporates the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on a monthly timeframe. The RSI currently hovers around 40, having retracted from higher readings during earlier phases of the rally. Historically, XRP's cycle tops have coincided with RSI levels exceeding 80, most notably during the 2017 surge. The persistence of current RSI levels below these historical extremes suggests that XRP may have ample room for another significant upward movement should market momentum strengthen.

Crucially, the chart also illustrates XRP's consistent respect for support zones after major rallies, rather than experiencing sharp collapses. This pattern of resilience, according to the analysis, reinforces the bullish sentiment surrounding its current market structure. The ambitious US$35 price target is derived from the upper boundary of this long-term ascending channel, presenting a technical pathway rooted in historical structure rather than merely short-term fluctuations.

Why it matters for Australian investors

For Australian investors, this technical analysis provides a long-term lens through which to view XRP, an asset widely available on local exchanges such as CoinSpot, Independent Reserve, Swyftx, and BTC Markets. While the US$35 target is speculative and based on historical patterns, it underscores the potential for significant long-term growth if these patterns repeat.

Understanding such technical perspectives can help Australian investors contextualise XRP's performance beyond daily price swings. It encourages a focus on market structure and historical behaviour, which can be particularly useful when forming a long-term investment strategy. However, it's vital to remember that past performance is not indicative of future results, and the cryptocurrency market remains highly unpredictable.

Australian investors also need to consider the regulatory environment. While the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) and AUSTRAC oversee the broader financial and anti-money laundering frameworks, specific guidance on assets like XRP can evolve. Tax implications, as overseen by the Australian Taxation Office (ATO), are also a crucial consideration for any profits made from cryptocurrency trading, requiring careful record-keeping.

The analysis, coming from a typically Bitcoin-focused commentator, also highlights a broader cross-asset interest within the crypto community. This might signal a maturing market where even staunch supporters of one asset are acknowledging the technical merits and potential of others. For Australian investors, this diversification of analytical viewpoints can provide richer context for their own research.

Impact on the AUD market

The potential for a significant XRP surge, as suggested by Bitcoin Boy's analysis, could have a discernible impact on the Australian crypto market, particularly for AUD-denominated XRP trading pairs available on local exchanges. A substantial price increase for XRP globally would likely translate into higher AUD prices on platforms like CoinSpot and Swyftx, which facilitate direct AUD conversions.

Increased attention on XRP, spurred by such analyses, could lead to a rise in trading volumes and liquidity for its AUD pairs. This can make it easier for Australian investors to enter and exit positions. However, a surge in demand could also lead to periods of heightened volatility, which investors should be prepared for.

Furthermore, if XRP were to approach such ambitious price targets, it could draw new Australian investors into the crypto market, driven by the prospect of significant returns. This influx might not only boost XRP's presence but could also have a spillover effect on other altcoins and even Bitcoin, as new participants explore the wider market.

Local exchanges would likely see increased activity, potentially leading to more competitive offerings or expanded services to cater to growing demand. For existing holders in Australia, a sustained rally in XRP could represent considerable capital gains, triggering ATO reporting obligations, making diligent record-keeping of all transactions absolutely essential.

What to watch next

Moving forward, Australian investors should closely monitor several key areas. Firstly, fundamental developments related to Ripple and its ongoing legal landscape remain paramount. While the technical analysis is compelling, fundamental news or regulatory shifts, particularly in major jurisdictions, can significantly influence XRP's price trajectory.

Secondly, track the broader cryptocurrency market sentiment. XRP often moves in correlation with Bitcoin and Ethereum, and a sustained bull market across the crypto space would lend support to a potential XRP rally. Keep an eye on global macroeconomic indicators and central bank policies, as they can indirectly influence investor appetite for risk assets like cryptocurrency.

Technically, watch for XRP's ability to maintain its position within the described ascending channel. Any breaks below the lower trendline could signal a shift in the long-term structure, while sustained movement towards the upper boundary would reinforce Bitcoin Boy's analysis. Pay attention to the monthly RSI levels; a climb back towards and beyond 80 could be interpreted as a strong bullish signal by technical analysts.

Finally, for Australian investors, it's prudent to stay informed about any new regulatory announcements from ASIC or AUSTRAC that might affect how digital assets are treated locally. Also, keep an eye on Australian crypto exchange developments, such as new trading pairs, enhanced security features, or updated fee structures, which can all impact the local trading environment. Always conduct thorough research and consider your own financial circumstances before making any investment decisions.